Population

Key terms:

1. Birth rate – number of births in a year per 1000 population
2. Death rate – number of deaths in a year per 1000 population
3. Net immigration – condition/situation where more people are coming to live in the country (immigrants) than the number of people leaving the country (emigrants)

Influences on Birth Rates and Death Rates

Birth Rates:

1. The average age of the population
2. Number of women in the population
3. Women’s fertility rate (average number of children per woman)

Death Rates:

1. Nutrition
2. Housing conditions
3. Medical care
4. Lifestyle
5. Working conditions
6. Involvement or non-involvement in military action

Birth rates are high when:

1. The average age of the population is low
2. The infant mortality rate is low
3. Women are not educated
4. Most women do not work
5. Bringing up children is cheap
6. Approval of family planning
7. Government incentives to have more children
8. Lack of government help to take care of the elderly

Death rates are low when people:

1. Have healthy diets
2. Enjoy good housing facilities
3. Can access good healthcare
4. Do not smoke or consume excessive alcohol 
5. Exercise regularly 
6. Enjoy good working conditions
7. The country is at peace with other countries 

Reasons for Different Rates of Population Growth

• Net migration is influenced by:
• Relative living standards abroad
• Persecution of particular groups
• The extent of control of the movement of people (restriction to immigration by other countries)
• Migrants tend to either be single or young families of working age

Effects of Changes in Sizes and Structure of Population

Population Structures

• Gender Distribution

The age distribution is the division of the population into two different age groups. In broad terms, the categories are people under 16 and those over 65.

KEY TERM: 

Population Pyramid: a diagram showing the age and gender structure of a country’s population.

Dependency Ratio

The age structure of a population influences its dependency ratio. This is the:

Number in dependent age groups number in the labor force× 100

The dependent age groups are those below school leaving age and those above retirement age.

Optimum Population

The term optimum population refers to the number of people which, when combined with the other resources of land, capital, and existing technical knowledge, gives the maximum output of goods and services per head of the population.

In practice, it is difficult to determine a country’s optimum population and the size of the actual population relative to it. This is, in part, because the quantity and quality of resources are changing all the time.

Positive effects of an increase in population

1. Increase in labor force
2. The country will be able to make better use of its resources
3. Increase in factor mobility
4. The size of markets will increase
5. Extra demand will be generated 

Negative effects of an increase in population

1. Concerns about famine
2. Restriction on improvements in living standards
3. Overcrowding
4. Environmental pressure
5. Pressure on employment benefits
6. Balance of payment pressures

Consequences of an Ageing Population

An aging population can be caused by a fall in the birth rate, a fall in the death rate, net emigration, or a combination of the three. There are several consequences of an aging population including:

• A rise in the dependency ratio. If people are living longer and there are fewer workers because of net emigration, there will be a greater proportion of consumers to workers.
• A change in the labor force. Older workers may be geographically and occupationally less mobile. They may, however, be more experienced, reliable, and patient.
• Higher demand for healthcare. The elderly place the greatest burden on a country’s health service.
• Greater need for welfare services, such as caring for the elderly at home and in retirement homes.
• Rise in cost of state and private pensions.
• Change in the pattern of demand. For example, the demand for housing for retired people will rise.

Ways to Cope with an Ageing Population

• As the aging population increases the tax burden, the government raises the retirement age. This will reduce the cost of pensions and increase tax revenue.
• Working longer increases their income and keeps them mentally fit and healthy.
• The government can spend on training them.
• Compulsory saving for retirement to reduce the pressure on pensions.

Internal Migration

Workers tend to migrate from rural to urban areas in search of better jobs and higher incomes. Such migrants may supply growing industries and result in a better allocation of resources. Their movement may also raise living standards in rural areas if initially there had been underemployment and if they send back money to their relatives. 

There may, however, be some harmful effects also. If it is the most productive agricultural workers that leave, agricultural productivity may fall. There is also no guarantee that enough jobs will be available in urban areas and several external costs, including overcrowding, increased pressure on social capital and congestion may occur as a result of the rapid expansion of cities.

The Effects of Net Emigration

There are several possible economic effects of net migration. These are influenced by the size and the nature of the emigration. Some of these include:

• The size of the working population is likely to be reduced. Most emigrants tend to be of working age.
• The remaining labor force will have a greater burden of dependency.
• The average age of the labor force will increase. This may make it less mobile.
• The gender distribution of the population may be affected. In the case of some countries, more men emigrate than women. 
• There may be a shortage of skilled workers. For example, doctors may emigrate in search of higher pay and better working conditions. The country they leave will experience a ‘brain drain’, while the country they go to will experience a ‘brain gain’.
• There may be under-utilization of resources. The country may become under-populated.
• Those who emigrate may send money home to help their relatives. This money is called workers’ remittances.